Thursday, November 3, 2011

لأشقائنا وشقيقاتنا المصرية : تهانينا على المسار الخاص للديمقراطية

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Pax Turkana: Turkey, Egypt and the Remaking of the Middle East

It was the first post-modern technology-driven revolution. While revolutions of the 20th century took months of struggle, this one was furiously fast. It was as if the usual revolutionary course was on fast-forward. Within the span of a mere 17 days, Egypt’s people forced out a despot and ushered in a care-taking governing council while a new constitution was drafted and elections scheduled.

Compare that to 20th century revolutions such as the Russian Revolution of 1917, which began in early January with widespread strikes an ended with the Czar Nicholas II’s abdication on March 2. The Chinese revolution of 1911 began on October 10 and ended with the abdication of the last emperor of the Manchu Dynasty on February 12, 1912.

It was also the first revolution seen live across the globe. Twitter and Facebook played prominent roles before the international media figured out something big was happening in the most populous Muslim country in the Middle East. When the Mubarek regime sent in riders on camels to terrorize the protestors camped out in Tahrir Square, millions saw it happening on YouTube.

But like revolutions before, abdication is merely the beginning. What happens next is both predictable and unpredictable - predictable in its path, but unpredictable in the details. The Russians got the Bolshevik Revolution by October of the same year after the caretaker government was overthrown. The Chinese got Mao. Who or what will the Egyptians get?

There are a few good bets. The Muslim Brotherhood may rise through election to the Egyptian Parliament, where questions remain unanswered about their agenda. The military may resist giving up its caretaker role and delay elections, spurring another, more violent and ideological revolution. Or the emerging regional influence of Turkey may prove the catalyst for a broader, more moderate, perhaps even secular Islamic republic - something some no doubt believe an oxymoron.

This book explores the possibilities and makes a few educated guesses at Egypt and the region’s future post-American influence. Publication date is January 1, 2012